South Korea enters this 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage match with a 133-point advantage in international ELO ratings over the Czech Republic (1917 vs 1784). While our blended model gives South Korea 44% to win, the market consensus places them slightly lower at 36%, showing a 8-point difference. The Czech Republic's recent international form shows two draws in their last five matches. A key factor to watch will be South Korea's highest-valued asset, currently priced at €140M, against the Czech Republic's consistent defensive record. Model leans South Korea at 44%.
The Czech Republic, holding a 36-point International ELO advantage over South Africa (1784 vs 1748), faces the African nation in their group stage opener. Our model gives Czech Republic 42%, with a 29% chance of a draw and South Africa at 30%. This contrasts sharply with market consensus, which places Czech Republic at 57% and South Africa at just 18%, a 15-point gap indicating significant disagreement on South Africa's prospects. With South Africa's highest-valued player at just €200k, watch for how their collective defensive solidity, evidenced by recent 'DD' draws, holds against the more ELO-rated Czechs. Model leans Czech Republic at 42%, but the draw is live at 29%.