Mexico enters their 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage opener against South Africa as the favorite. Our blended model gives Mexico 58% to win, a figure considerably lower than the market consensus of 79%. This 21-point gap highlights a notable disagreement, especially concerning South Africa's prospects, which our model places at 18% versus the market's 7%. Mexico's higher International ELO of 1924 to South Africa's 1748 further supports their favored status. While South Africa's top asset is valued at €200k, their recent form shows two draws, mirroring Mexico's most recent result. Watch for Mexico's ability to break down South Africa's defense, given the difference in team valuations. Model leans Mexico at 58%, but the draw is live at 24%.