France opens their 2026 FIFA World Cup campaign against Senegal. Our model gives France a 56% chance of victory, with a 25% probability of a draw, and Senegal at 19%. This contrasts with the market consensus, which sees France at 66% and Senegal at 13%. France's squad is valued at €1.6B, significantly outweighing Senegal's €35M, and their ELO rating of 2096 is 197 points higher than Senegal's 1899. Both teams drew their last fixture. The significant disparity in squad market value, with France's pool 44.9× more valuable, is a key indicator. Model leans France at 56%, but the draw is live at 25%.