Previews · Bundesliga ·
Bayern vs Dortmund: first v second, and Kane v Schlotterbeck decides it
- Kick-off
- Venue
- Allianz Arena, Munich
- Referee
- Tobias Stieler (reported)
Our call: Bayern München win 2–1
Kane against Schlotterbeck is where it turns, and Bayern's attack has more ways to score than Dortmund can close.
We'll mark this call after full time.
Logged 29 Oct, 09:41 UTC, never edited.
In 30 seconds
- First against second, level on 17 points after seven games; only goal difference puts Bayern top.
- Vincent Kompany is still in hospital, so Aaron Danks chooses Bayern's team; Luis Díaz is out and Manuel Neuer and Joshua Kimmich are doubts.
- Dortmund have conceded slightly fewer than Bayern in their last ten, and it still will not be enough in Munich.
The story
Seven games into the Bundesliga season, Bayern and Dortmund cannot be split on points. Bayern are top on goal difference, 19 to Dortmund's 8, and Freiburg and Leverkusen are four points further back. Whoever wins in Munich on Sat 31 Oct goes three points clear of the other.
Bayern go into it without their head coach. Vincent Kompany collapsed at a Bayern training session on Fri 23 Oct and is still in hospital; his assistant Aaron Danks has visited him and, Bundesliga.com reported on Tue 27 Oct, found him in good spirits and getting better each day. Bundesliga.com gives no date for his return. Danks has won both games in charge, 3–1 at Freiburg on Sun 25 Oct and 6–1 against Magdeburg in the DFB Pokal on Wed 28 Oct, when he rotated and Harry Kane, newly named the Ballon d'Or winner, started on the bench.
Niko Kovač's Dortmund arrive on three wins in a row. They beat Eintracht Frankfurt 1–0 on Sat 24 Oct, then let a 2–0 lead slip against Werder Bremen in the cup on Tue 27 Oct before Marcel Sabitzer's free kick in stoppage time won it 3–2. Bundesliga.com notes that Gregor Kobel, their goalkeeper, has not won any of his 10 Bundesliga games against Bayern.
This decides it: Harry Kane against Nico Schlotterbeck. Kane and Michael Olise have both scored freely in Bayern's last ten games. Schlotterbeck, captain while Emre Can is injured, is the centre-back who has to keep Kane quiet. If he does, Dortmund can leave Munich with at least a point; if he doesn't, Olise is the second problem waiting.
Form
Unbeaten in these five, but both Champions League games were draws.
Three wins in a row since the 0–0 at Union Berlin.
The games, with scores
| Bayern München | 28 Oct | v 1. FC MagdeburgDFB | W 6–1 |
| 25 Oct | at SC FreiburgBL | W 3–1 | |
| 21 Oct | v ArsenalUCL | D 2–2 | |
| 17 Oct | v RB LeipzigBL | W 6–1 | |
| 13 Oct | at VikingUCL | D 3–3 | |
| Borussia Dortmund | 27 Oct | v Werder BremenDFB | W 3–2 |
| 24 Oct | v Eintracht FrankfurtBL | W 1–0 | |
| 20 Oct | at Sabah FAUCL | W 2–1 | |
| 17 Oct | at Union BerlinBL | D 0–0 | |
| 14 Oct | at Bodo/GlimtUCL | L 0–1 |
Latest first. Latest on the left. BL = Bundesliga, DFB = DFB Pokal, UCL = Champions League. OddsIntel match database, read 28 Oct 2026.
Team news
Checked Thu 29 Oct 07:25 UTC: Bundesliga.com (Danks on Kompany and the squad, 27 Oct; matchday 8 team news, 27 Oct; Bayern's key players, 28 Oct; the Dortmund cup report, 28 Oct) and kicker (the referee, via Sport1, 28 Oct). Reported means the club has not yet confirmed it for this match. Line-ups: confirmed about an hour before kick-off; they go under Updates. We don't publish guessed XIs.
Díaz is the only one of Bayern's regular scorers who is out; Kane started on the bench against Magdeburg. Serhou Guirassy, Dortmund's top scorer in their last ten with 6, started against Bremen and scored after six minutes. Fábio Silva, with 2 goals in that run, started on the bench there; no injury has been reported. Bayern's cup side was rotated, so the pitch below shows their last league eleven, at Freiburg.
Borussia Dortmund 3-4-2-1 · v Werder Bremen, 27 Oct
- Kobel
- GadouAntonSchlotterbeck (key battle)
- RyersonBellinghamVeermanBeier
- ChukwuemekaNmecha
- Guirassy
- Kane (key battle)
- KarlGnabryOlise
- BischofLaimer
- BrownTahUpamecanoStanišić
- Urbig
Bayern München 4-2-3-1 · at SC Freiburg, 25 Oct (last league XI)
Both last XIs on a pitch
Borussia Dortmund 3-4-2-1 · v Werder Bremen, 27 Oct
- Kobel
- GadouAntonSchlotterbeck (key battle)
- RyersonBellinghamVeermanBeier
- ChukwuemekaNmecha
- Guirassy
- Kane (key battle)
- KarlGnabryOlise
- BischofLaimer
- BrownTahUpamecanoStanišić
- Urbig
Bayern München 4-2-3-1 · at SC Freiburg, 25 Oct (last league XI)
Who to watch
The duel to watch: Harry Kane against Nico Schlotterbeck. Kane led the line at Freiburg; Schlotterbeck started in Dortmund's back three against Bremen and has to stay close to him without being dragged out of it.
Bayern München
Harry Kane
The new Ballon d'Or winner, who led the line in Bayern's last league game at Freiburg.
- 8
- goals, Bayern's last 10
Bayern München
Michael Olise
The other half of Bayern's threat, alongside Kane.
- 7
- goals, Bayern's last 10
Borussia Dortmund
Serhou Guirassy
Opened the scoring against Bremen and is the man Dortmund rely on for a goal in Munich.
- 6
- goals, Dortmund's last 10
Player goals count only where we hold a named scorer: each side's last ten games, all competitions. OddsIntel match database, read 28 Oct 2026.
Head-to-head
We hold seven meetings since 2023 and show the newest five: Bayern won the last three and lost none of the five.
All 5 meetings
Result for Bayern München. The newest five of seven meetings held since 2023. OddsIntel match database, read 28 Oct 2026.
Numbers that matter
Goals scored, last ten: Bayern München 36, Borussia Dortmund 18 (higher is better)
Twice as many; Bayern put six past Magdeburg and Leipzig and seven past Union Berlin.
Goals conceded, last ten · fewer is better: Bayern München 11, Borussia Dortmund 10 (lower is better)
Close to level; Bayern let in three at Viking and two each to Arsenal and Augsburg.
Clean sheets, last ten: Bayern München 3, Borussia Dortmund 4 (higher is better)
All four of Dortmund's came in the league: Frankfurt, Union Berlin, Stuttgart and Paderborn failed to score.
Last ten games each, all competitions. OddsIntel match database, read 28 Oct 2026.
Our call, explained
Our call: Bayern win 2–1. Bayern have scored at least twice in nine of their last ten games, and the one blank was a 0–0 at Schalke in early September. Dortmund kept four clean sheets in their last ten, but Bayern have more than one way through: Kane and Olise have both scored in that run. Dortmund score because they rarely go without one; they have scored in eight of their last ten, and Bayern have conceded in seven of theirs, so we expect Guirassy or Beier to get on the scoresheet.
Where this could go wrong. Bayern drew four of their last ten, and with Kompany away and Neuer and Kimmich uncertain, a 1–1 or 2–2 is the likelier miss. If Schlotterbeck and Kobel keep Kane quiet and Dortmund score first, they can hold on and go top. The other way, Bayern put six past Leipzig at home on Sat 17 Oct, and an early goal could make this a much heavier defeat for Dortmund.
Updates
Nothing has changed since we published. Next: Danks's and Kovač's pre-match news on Neuer, Kimmich and Musiala, then confirmed line-ups, about an hour before kick-off.
Data note: results, scorers, the table and line-ups from our database, read 28 Oct 23:40 UTC, so the counts run to Dortmund's cup game against Werder Bremen on 27 Oct and Bayern's against Magdeburg on 28 Oct. A player goal count leaves out any goal whose scorer we do not hold (6 of Bayern's goals in their last ten, 2 of Dortmund's). Team news and match details from Bundesliga.com; the referee as reported by kicker.
Our call was timestamped by an independent service before kick-off, Thu 29 Oct, 10:30 UTC.
How the timestamp works
Timestamped before kick-off by an independent service (DigiCert, RFC 3161), Thu 29 Oct, 10:30 UTC. The call file is the exact version that was timestamped. The file with our call and its timestamp token: call file · timestamp. Its fingerprint (sha256):
260b10b057912642ffa0fffe39409b3ae4e4a7d9e7b0e39add1b4fae946f1dc9
Our calls so far
- calls right
- 28/44
- home win every time
- 19/44