Lille vs Lens: Florian Thauvin against Romain Perraud is Lens's best way into a reshaped Lille defence

The story#

Davide Ancelotti's Lille were 1–0 up at Monaco on Sun 25 Oct, through Ethan Mbappé's goal after 24 minutes, when Tanguy Nianzou was sent off for a studs-up challenge on 66 minutes. Monaco equalised eight minutes later, and Lille held on with ten men for a 1–1 draw. The point mattered, but the red card takes a defender out of Ancelotti's back four for the derby, and Ayase Ueda, Lille's top scorer in their last ten games, is still out with a foot injury.

Yannick Cahuzac's Lens come up the road in better league form. They were behind at half-time against Paris FC at Bollaert on Sat 24 Oct, then Florian Thauvin equalised and Thorgan Hazard, on as a substitute, won it 2–1 late on. That was a third league win in a row, after Lyon and Troyes. Europe has been harder: in the same weeks they lost to Sporting and Club Brugge in the Champions League without scoring.

Lille are third on 15 points and Lens seventh on 13, and only four points cover the top seven. A Lens win lifts them above their neighbours; a Lille win opens a five-point gap. The last time Lens came to Lille, on Sat 4 Apr, they lost 3–0, a result Flashscore called a major blow to their title hopes.

This decides it: Lens have conceded in every one of their last ten games, and Lille, even without Ueda, have scored in nine of their last ten. If Lille's reshaped defence holds, that is enough. Thauvin against Romain Perraud, Lille's left-back, is where Lens find their answer.

Form#

Team news#

Ueda has 3 goals in Lille's last ten; Ethan Mbappé and Soriba Diaoune, with 2 each, both started at Monaco. Olivier Giroud, also on 2, did not start there, and none of the sources we checked gave a reason. For Lens, Sima scored 2 in their last ten before his injury. Lille's eleven below loses Nianzou, so at least one change is certain.

Who to watch#

The duel to watch: Florian Thauvin against Romain Perraud. Thauvin captained Lens against Paris FC and scored their equaliser; Perraud started at left-back for Lille at Monaco and is the Lille defender we expect to see most of him. Nianzou's ban reshapes the other side of Lille's back four, so Ancelotti needs Perraud's flank to hold.

Head-to-head#

Numbers that matter#

Our call, explained#

Our call: Lille win 2–1. Lille have beaten Lens in each of the last three derbies at their own ground, conceding once. Lille's attack has thinned without Ueda, but Mbappé and Diaoune both scored in Lille's last ten and both started at Monaco. Lens get one because Thauvin is in form and Lille's defence has to be rebuilt without Nianzou; three league wins in a row say they will not come to sit deep.

Where this could go wrong. Lille have conceded in seven of their last ten and played from the 66th minute at Monaco a man down; a reshaped back four against a Lens side with Thauvin scoring could turn this into a Lens win. The other way, Lens lost three of their six away games in their last ten, and if Lille score first, Lens could lose by more.

Updates#

Nothing has changed since we published. Next: Ancelotti's and Cahuzac's pre-match news, then confirmed line-ups, about an hour before kick-off.

Data note: results, scorers, the table and line-ups from our database, read 27 Oct 10:10 UTC, so the counts run to Lens's game against Paris FC on 24 Oct and Lille's at Monaco on 25 Oct. A player goal count leaves out any goal whose scorer we do not hold (1 of Lens's 14 in their last ten). Team news, the referee and match details from ligue1.com, losc.fr, rclens.fr, Le Petit Lillois and Flashscore.