- Kick-off
- Venue
- URSAPHARM-Arena, Spiesen-Elversberg
Our call: SV Elversberg 1–2 FSV Mainz 05 · FSV Mainz 05 win
Phillip Tietz against Elversberg's centre-backs is the matchup that should keep Mainz's away run going.
We'll mark this call after full time.
Logged 28 Oct, 15:17 UTC, never edited.
In 30 seconds
- Both sides have 10 points from seven games: Mainz are seventh on goal difference, newly promoted Elversberg eighth.
- Elversberg are without Luis Seifert and Tom Zimmerschied, with Jan Gyamerah doubtful; Mainz may be without Nadiem Amiri, who missed Bochum with a knee problem.
- Elversberg will make chances, but Tietz is the one player in this game who has been finishing his.
The story
Vincent Wagner's Elversberg are seven games into the first top-flight season in the club's history, and they have already beaten Bayer Leverkusen and FC Augsburg at home. The two games since have gone wrong. They lost 4–0 at RB Leipzig on Sat 24 Oct, then went out of the DFB-Pokal at home to Darmstadt on Tue 27 Oct, 2–0, despite 26 shots and 18 corners. Wagner rotated five players for the cup and said afterwards that his side want to do better against Mainz on Fri 30 Oct.
Urs Fischer's Mainz arrive with an odd record. At home in the league they have drawn with Paderborn and lost to Frankfurt and Leverkusen, then 2–3 to Werder Bremen on Sat 24 Oct. Away from home they have won 5–0 at Hamburg, 4–3 at Gladbach and 1–0 at Schalke. Their own cup exit came the same night as Elversberg's, 2–0 at Bochum, with Nadiem Amiri missing through a knee problem.
The table has the two sides level on 10 points, Mainz seventh on goal difference and Elversberg eighth. A win takes either side to 13 points, level with third-placed Freiburg and fourth-placed Leverkusen, four behind Bayern and Dortmund at the top; the loser stays on 10, one point clear of the three clubs on 9.
This decides it: Phillip Tietz has 9 goals in Mainz's last ten games, and Elversberg have conceded in nine of their last ten. If Elversberg's centre-backs cannot keep Tietz quiet, Mainz's away run goes on.
Form
One win in five, and no goal in four of them.
Both league defeats here came at home.
The games, with scores
| SV Elversberg | 27 Oct | v SV Darmstadt 98Pokal | L 0–2 |
| 24 Oct | at RB LeipzigBL | L 0–4 | |
| 17 Oct | v FC AugsburgBL | W 4–3 | |
| 10 Oct | at Union BerlinBL | L 0–1 | |
| 20 Sep | at FC Schalke 04BL | D 0–0 | |
| FSV Mainz 05 | 27 Oct | at VfL BochumPokal | L 0–2 |
| 24 Oct | v Werder BremenBL | L 2–3 | |
| 17 Oct | at FC Schalke 04BL | W 1–0 | |
| 10 Oct | v Bayer LeverkusenBL | L 3–4 | |
| 3 Oct | at Waldhof MannheimFriendly | W 3–0 |
Latest first. Latest on the left. BL = Bundesliga, Pokal = DFB-Pokal. OddsIntel match database, read 27 Oct 2026.
Team news
Checked Wed 28 Oct 07:40 UTC: sv07elversberg.de (the Darmstadt report, 27 Oct), mainz05.de (the Bochum report, 27 Oct) and bundesliga.com (the matchday 7 absentee list, 23 Oct, and the cup live ticker). Reported means the club has not said so for this match. Line-ups: confirmed about an hour before kick-off; they go under Updates. We don't publish guessed XIs.
Both last elevens are from the cup games on Tue 27 Oct, so neither is a guide to the line-ups on Fri 30 Oct. Lukas Petkov, with 2 goals in Elversberg's last ten, started against Darmstadt. Francis Onyeka, also on 2, has started none of Elversberg's last three games and came off the bench for the last seven minutes against Darmstadt; the club has reported no injury. For Mainz, Anthony Caci and Sheraldo Becker have 3 each in that window: Becker started at Bochum, while Caci began on the bench, came on after 63 minutes and played on after a heavy knock late in the game.
FSV Mainz 05 3-3-2-2 · at Bochum, 27 Oct
- Schwolow
- da CostaPoschPotulski
- WidmerSanoMwene
- NebelLee
- Tietz (key battle)Becker
- Futkeu
- PetkovSchmahlCampbell
- PorębaCondé
- GüntherPinckert (key battle)Le JoncourSirch
- Kristof
SV Elversberg 4-2-3-1 · v Darmstadt, 27 Oct
Both last XIs on a pitch
FSV Mainz 05 3-3-2-2 · at Bochum, 27 Oct
- Schwolow
- da CostaPoschPotulski
- WidmerSanoMwene
- NebelLee
- Tietz (key battle)Becker
- Futkeu
- PetkovSchmahlCampbell
- PorębaCondé
- GüntherPinckert (key battle)Le JoncourSirch
- Kristof
SV Elversberg 4-2-3-1 · v Darmstadt, 27 Oct
Who to watch
The duel to watch: Phillip Tietz against Lukas Pinckert. Tietz is Mainz's top scorer in their last ten games by a distance and led the line at Bochum; Pinckert started in the middle of Elversberg's back four against Darmstadt and is one of the defenders who will see most of him. Elversberg let in three at home to Augsburg and four at Leipzig, so the centre of their defence is where Mainz will aim.
FSV Mainz 05
Phillip Tietz
Mainz's centre-forward, and their top scorer in their last ten games by six.
- 9
- goals, Mainz's last 10
SV Elversberg
Lukas Petkov
Scored Elversberg's first Bundesliga goal and started against Darmstadt.
- 2
- goals, Elversberg's last 10
FSV Mainz 05
Sheraldo Becker
Tietz's strike partner at Bochum, and the second threat Elversberg have to track.
- 3
- goals, Mainz's last 10
Player goals count only where we hold a named scorer: each side's last ten games, all competitions. OddsIntel match database, read 27 Oct 2026.
Head-to-head
Every meeting we hold (1, back to 2023): a DFB-Pokal first-round game at Elversberg, won by Mainz with a Ludovic Ajorque penalty. We hold no league meeting between them.
Every meeting we hold (1, back to 2023). Result for SV Elversberg. Every meeting we hold (1, back to 2023). OddsIntel match database, read 27 Oct 2026; the penalty from bundesliga.com.
Numbers that matter
Goals scored, last ten: SV Elversberg 19, FSV Mainz 05 28 (higher is better)
Mainz score more, though 9 of their 28 came in one cup game at Krieschow and 3 in a friendly.
Goals conceded, last ten · fewer is better: SV Elversberg 19, FSV Mainz 05 15 (lower is better)
Elversberg let in 19; four came at Leipzig and three each against Augsburg and Gladbach.
Failed to score, last ten · fewer is better: SV Elversberg 4, FSV Mainz 05 2 (lower is better)
Elversberg drew a blank at Schalke, Union and Leipzig and against Darmstadt; Mainz only at Bochum and against Paderborn.
Last ten games each, all competitions (each side's include one friendly and two cup games). OddsIntel match database, read 27 Oct 2026.
Our call, explained
Our call: Mainz win 2–1. Mainz have been a different side away from home this season, with ten goals in three league away games, and Tietz is the forward Elversberg have to stop. Elversberg's back four let in four at Leipzig and two against Darmstadt. Elversberg get one because they have scored in every league game at their own ground, against Leverkusen and Bayern included.
How we could be wrong. Mainz are no fortress at the back, with three conceded at Gladbach and three or more in three home league games, and Elversberg have scored in all three of their league games at home; they also had 26 shots against Darmstadt, and if Petkov and Futkeu finish more of what they create, Elversberg can win this. The other way, if Mainz score early and Elversberg chase the game, Mainz could win by more than one.
Updates
Nothing has changed since we published. Next: Wagner's and Fischer's pre-match news, the referee once appointed, then confirmed line-ups, about an hour before kick-off.
Data note: results, scorers, the table and line-ups from our database, read 27 Oct 22:40 UTC, so the counts run to both sides' DFB-Pokal games on 27 Oct. A player goal count leaves out any goal whose scorer we do not hold (8 of Elversberg's 19 and 3 of Mainz's 28 in their last ten). Team news and match details from sv07elversberg.de, mainz05.de and bundesliga.com.
Our call was timestamped by an independent service before kick-off, Wed 28 Oct, 15:20 UTC.
How the timestamp works
Timestamped before kick-off by an independent service (DigiCert, RFC 3161), Wed 28 Oct, 15:20 UTC. The call file is the exact version that was timestamped. The file with our call and its timestamp token: call file · timestamp. Its fingerprint (sha256):
dafecafde6f3a2b908ccfe20df30d9bcc93c722e1dd7301410d39938a31768b1
Our calls so far
- calls right
- 27/42
- home win every time
- 19/42