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Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig: Mbappé has 11 goals in ten games, and Leipzig must stop him at the Bernabéu

Margus Sellin5 min read

Champions League · League phase, matchday 3 · full time
Real Madrid
Full time
4–1
RB Leipzig
Kick-off
Venue
Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid
Our call
Real Madrid 3–1 RB Leipzig

Real Madrid win. Logged 20 Oct, 07:13 UTC, never edited.

✓ Right resultSee every call we made

What happened

Real Madrid 4–1 RB Leipzig. We said Real Madrid win 3–1: Right result, wrong score, 10 points.

  • Bernardo Silva put Real Madrid ahead on 43'. Arda Güler made it 2–0 on 52', from Kylian Mbappé's pass, and Mbappé scored the third himself on 83', set up by Yan Diomande. Tidiam Gomis got Leipzig's goal on 85', from Christoph Baumgartner's pass, and Diomande made it 4–1 on 87', from Brahim Díaz's pass. We said Kylian Mbappé v Willi Orbán; Mbappé scored one and set up another. Our call rested on Mbappé scoring and Leipzig still finding a goal: both happened.
  • Real Madrid had 65% of the ball, 18 shots to 11 and 11 on target to 6. What we got right: a Real Madrid win, Mbappé on the scoresheet and one Leipzig goal. Where we were wrong: the score; Real Madrid scored four, one more than we expected.
Before the match: our preview

In 30 seconds

  • Real Madrid have won both Champions League games, the second from 3–1 down in Rome; Leipzig lost 4–1 at Como, then beat PSV 1–0.
  • Leipzig won all four home games in their last ten without conceding, and lost five of their six away games.
  • Mbappé scores at the Bernabéu, and Leipzig's defeat at Bayern on Sat 17 Oct was no one-off.

The story

Martín Demichelis did not hide after Sat 17 Oct. Leipzig lost 6–1 at Bayern, three down at half-time, and their sporting director Marcel Schäfer called it "a complete failure from us in every area". Demichelis, in his first season, apologised to the fans who travelled to Munich. Four days later his side walk into the Bernabéu, where Kylian Mbappé has 11 goals in Real Madrid's last ten games, two of them against Sevilla on Sun 18 Oct, one a Panenka penalty.

José Mourinho's Real Madrid are not flawless. They lost at Atlético and at Real Betis in LaLiga, and in Rome on Wed 14 Oct they trailed 3–1 before Carlos Espí, Endrick and Antonio Rüdiger scored in the last eight minutes for a 4–3 win. That made it six points from two games and eighth in the 36-team league phase. Leipzig are 21st on three. The top eight go straight to the last 16, and ninth to 24th play off in February, so a defeat here leaves Leipzig chasing from the bottom half. Vinícius Júnior is serving a four-game LaLiga ban and misses the Clásico, but it does not count in Europe, and Mourinho wants him in the side.

This decides it: Mbappé against Leipzig's centre-backs, Willi Orbán and Castello Lukeba. At home Leipzig are a different team: in their last ten games they won all four at home without conceding. Away, in Munich, Leverkusen, Como and Bremen, they let in three or more three times and lost all four. In Munich Demichelis tried Lukas Klostermann at right-back, with Benjamin Henrichs on the bench, and Bayern scored three before half-time.

Champions League 2026/27 explained: the format and the full league-phase table

Form

Real Madrid

Four wins in five; the defeat was the derby at Atlético.

RB Leipzig

Three home wins, two away defeats.

The games, with scores
Real Madrid18 Octv SevillaLLW 4–1
14 Octat AS RomaUCLW 4–3
10 Octv VillarrealLLW 1–0
20 Sepat Atlético MadridLLL 1–2
15 Sepat ElcheLLW 3–2
RB Leipzig17 Octat Bayern MünchenBLL 1–6
13 Octv PSV EindhovenUCLW 1–0
10 Octv Eintracht FrankfurtBLW 6–0
20 Sepat Bayer LeverkusenBLL 0–2
13 Sepv Hamburger SVBLW 5–0

Latest first. Latest on the left. LL = LaLiga, BL = Bundesliga, UCL = Champions League. OddsIntel match database, read 18 Oct 2026.

↑ Our call

Team news

Rodrygo · Real Madrida torn cruciate ligament and meniscus in his right knee; the club is aiming for early 2027. Endrick and Yan Diomande have taken the wide places. (reported)Out
Raúl Asencio · Real Madrida stress fracture of the right tibia, operated on Thu 1 Oct, back in January. Konaté and Huijsen started at centre-back against Sevilla. (reported)Out
Ferland Mendy · Real Madridstill waiting for medical clearance, so Marc Cucurella keeps the left-back place. (reported)Doubtful
Vinícius Júnior · Real Madridbanned for four LaLiga games after his red card against Villarreal, which is why he missed Sevilla, but free to play in Europe. He started in Rome. (reported)Back
Éder Militão · Real Madridcame on in the closing minutes against Sevilla after a long injury. Before that game Mourinho said he needed a couple more weeks. (reported)Back
Assan Ouédraogo · RB Leipzighurt his shoulder against Hamburg on Sun 13 Sep and needed surgery; a return in 2026 is unlikely. One fewer runner from midfield. (reported)Out
Marc Guiu · RB Leipziga hamstring injury, which the club said in September would keep him out for several weeks. Nkunku stays the lone striker.Out
Christoph Baumgartner · RB Leipzigstill in rehab training before the Bayern game; Demichelis has said he can be back in October. (reported)Out

Checked Mon 19 Oct 07:30 UTC: SI.com, EFE via Infobae, The Objective, Futebol Interior and emol for Real Madrid; the club statement on Guiu via diethueringer.de, kicker via neunzigplus.de, dpa via DieBayern.de and rb-fans.de for Leipzig. Reported = not yet confirmed by the club. Line-ups: confirmed about an hour before kick-off; they go under Updates. We don't publish guessed XIs.

Both last XIs on a pitch

RB Leipzig 4-5-1 · v Bayern München, 17 Oct

  1. Vandevoordt
  2. KlostermannOrbán (key battle)LukebaRaum
  3. GrudaReitzEl AynaouiBanzuziNusa
  4. Nkunku
  1. Mbappé (key battle)
  2. DiomandeBellinghamEndrick
  3. TchouaméniGüler
  4. CucurellaHuijsenKonatéValverde
  5. Courtois

Real Madrid 4-2-3-1 · v Sevilla, 18 Oct

Both sides' last XIs (17 and 18 Oct), not a guess at the next ones. OddsIntel match database, read 18 Oct 2026.

Who to watch

The duel to watch: Kylian Mbappé against Willi Orbán. Mbappé led the line alone against Sevilla with Bellingham, Endrick and Diomande behind him, and his nearest team-mates have two goals each in the last ten. Orbán played on the right of Leipzig's centre-back pair in Munich, and with Bellingham arriving from midfield he will often have Mbappé to himself. If Orbán holds, Leipzig's counter has time to work.

Real Madrid

Arda Güler

Opened the scoring against Sevilla and set up two of the late goals in Rome from corners.

2
goals, Real Madrid's last 10

RB Leipzig

Antonio Nusa

Started on the left of Leipzig's midfield five in Munich, level with Nkunku as their joint top scorer.

4
goals, Leipzig's last 10

Goals in each side's last ten games, all competitions (one friendly for Leipzig). OddsIntel match database, read 18 Oct 2026.

Head-to-head

Real Madrid have won two of the four meetings, all in the Champions League, and are unbeaten against Leipzig at the Bernabéu.

Real Madrid v RB Leipzig 1–16 Mar 2024Champions League last 16, Madrid · Real Madrid won the tie 2–1 on aggregate= D
RB Leipzig v Real Madrid 0–113 Feb 2024Champions League last 16, Leipzig✓ W
RB Leipzig v Real Madrid 3–225 Oct 2022Champions League group, Leipzig✕ L
All 4 meetings
Real Madrid v RB Leipzig 2–014 Sep 2022Champions League group, Madrid✓ W

Every meeting we hold (4, back to 2022). Result for Real Madrid. Every meeting we hold, back to 2022. OddsIntel match database, read 18 Oct 2026.

↑ Our call

Numbers that matter

Real MadridRB Leipzig

Goals scored, last ten: Real Madrid 27, RB Leipzig 25 (higher is better)

Slightly more for Real; six of Leipzig's came at Eintracht Trier in the cup.

Goals conceded, last ten · fewer is better: Real Madrid 12, RB Leipzig 18 (lower is better)

Real Madrid have conceded in eight of their last ten, so Leipzig can score.

Defeats, last ten · fewer is better: Real Madrid 2, RB Leipzig 5 (lower is better)

Real Madrid are hard to beat; one of Leipzig's five was a pre-season friendly.

Last ten games each, all competitions plus one Leipzig friendly, to 18 Oct. OddsIntel match database, read 18 Oct 2026.

Our call, explained

We have Real Madrid winning 3–1. Mbappé is scoring more than a goal a game, Güler set up two goals in Rome and Vinícius should be back on the left, against a Leipzig side that has looked lost away from home in the Bundesliga and in Europe. We do expect Leipzig to score: they did in five of their six away games, and Real Madrid have conceded in eight of their last ten, including three in Rome. Nkunku and Nusa have eight goals between them.

Where this goes wrong. Leipzig beat Real Madrid 3–2 in 2022, and if Demichelis sits deeper than he did in Munich and Real have an off night like the 1–0 defeat at Betis, a draw is very possible. The other way, if Leipzig play as they did in Munich, Real Madrid win by four or more.

Updates

21 Oct, 23:45 CEST

Full time: Real Madrid 4–1 RB Leipzig (Bernardo Silva 43', Güler 52', Mbappé 83', Diomande 87'; Gomis 85'). Our 3–1 call: right result, wrong score. See What happened.

Next: nothing further; this match is finished.

Data note: results, scorers, the table and line-ups from our database, read 18 Oct 22:10 UTC, so the counts include both teams' games of 17 and 18 Oct. We hold ten games for each side, one of them a friendly for Leipzig. UEFA had not named a referee for this game when we checked. Team news and match details from SI.com, EFE, Infobae, The Objective, Futebol Interior, emol, AFP, kicker, dpa, diethueringer.de, neunzigplus.de and rb-fans.de.

Our call was timestamped by an independent service before kick-off, Tue 20 Oct, 07:20 UTC.

How the timestamp works

Timestamped before kick-off by an independent service (DigiCert, RFC 3161), Tue 20 Oct, 07:20 UTC. The call file is the exact version that was timestamped. The file with our call and its timestamp token: call file · timestamp. Its fingerprint (sha256):

34b3bbe85824d2dc29463c9c192a40cdf57fbc479283b0f83b6f94bc0ec1d313

Our calls so far

Every call
calls right
27/42
home win every time
19/42
Small sample: 42 games

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