Australia faces Türkiye in their 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage opener. Our model gives Australia a 27% chance of victory, slightly higher than the market consensus of 18%. Türkiye, with a squad valued at €232M, 3.0x more than Australia's €78M, enters as the favorite. Their international ELO rating also shows a 62-point advantage, and their top asset is valued at €32M, compared to Australia's €12M. Both nations come into this match following a draw in their last outing. Watch for Türkiye's higher market value to translate into offensive pressure. Model leans Türkiye at 45%, but the draw is live at 28%.