VfB Stuttgart vs Atlético Madrid: Simeone's side have won six in a row

The story#

Sebastian Hoeneß has two very different seasons running at once. In Europe, VfB Stuttgart beat Viking 3–1 and won 3–0 in Bratislava, and they sit fourth in the 36-team table on six points. A place in the first eight means no play-off round in February. In the Bundesliga they have won two of their six games, and the latest defeat hurt: on Sat 17 Oct Deniz Undav hit the post at Hamburg, Daniel Heuer Fernandes saved from him again after the break, and Miro Muheim won it for Hamburg from about 25 metres two minutes from time. "The defeat is very bitter," Hoeneß said, and he blamed his side's finishing. He would not talk about Atlético yet.

Diego Simeone's Atlético Madrid arrive in the opposite mood. They lost 2–1 at Liverpool on matchday 1 and have won every game since: Real Sociedad, Osasuna, Real Madrid, Alavés, Manchester United and Espanyol. The last one took patience on Sat 17 Oct: Espanyol sat deep until Álex Baena, on as a substitute, won it from outside the box in the 89th minute. They are 15th in the Champions League table on three points, so a win here would lift them towards the top eight. They will be without their captain: Koke has a thigh injury, and Simeone was already short of Johnny Cardoso at Espanyol.

The defence is the reason the run has lasted. Atlético kept four clean sheets in it, and at Espanyol the back four was Marc Pubill, Romero, Dávid Hancko and Dani Martínez. This decides it: whether Ermedin Demirović can find room between Romero and Hancko. He came off the bench in Bratislava to head a goal and has five goals in Stuttgart's last ten games. If Stuttgart get the first goal, the MHPArena gets loud and Atlético have to come out; if they do not, Simeone's side are very good at waiting.

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Form#

Team news#

Two of Atlético's leading scorers in their last ten games are missing from the last XI below, and neither is reported injured. Álex Grimaldo came on at half-time at Espanyol, and Baena came on just after the hour and scored the winner. That looked like rotation with the trip to Stuttgart three days later. Jonathan David started up front with Ademola Lookman. For Stuttgart, Demirović and Undav both started at Hamburg, and Grischa Prömel came off the bench.

Who to watch#

The duel to watch: Ermedin Demirović against Dávid Hancko. Demirović led the line at Hamburg with Undav just behind him, and he is Stuttgart's most reliable finisher. Hancko started on the left of Atlético's centre-back pair at Espanyol, next to Romero. If Demirović pulls Hancko wide and Undav runs into the space he leaves, Stuttgart have a way in; if Hancko stays tight and Barrios and Hjulmand screen in front of him, the striker spends the night with his back to goal.

Numbers that matter#

Our call, explained#

We have Atlético winning 2–1. The run is built on defending: since Liverpool only Real Madrid and Alavés have scored against them, once each. Stuttgart will find a goal at home, because they have scored three in each of their Champions League games and Undav keeps getting into good positions. But Hoeneß said it himself after Hamburg: his side were not clinical enough, and Atlético give up very little. With Grimaldo and Baena on the bench at Espanyol, Simeone also has fresh legs to bring on.

How we could be wrong. Atlético's two defeats in their last ten were both away, at Athletic Club and at Liverpool, and without Koke the midfield is thinner than usual; if Stuttgart press early and score first, a home win is very possible. The other way, Atlético scored four against Osasuna in September, and if Stuttgart chase the game in the second half there is space behind their full-backs for a wider margin.

Updates#

Data note: results, scorers, the table and line-ups from our database, read 17 Oct 15:40 UTC, so the counts include both teams' games of 17 Oct. We hold ten games for each side, two of them friendlies for Stuttgart. The referee had not been appointed when we checked. Team news and match details from vfb.de, Bundesliga.com, the Stuttgarter Zeitung, Europa Press, El Español and EFE.