Open ledger
Every pick made while its strategy was ACTIVE, paused and retired ones included · our model + the sharp-line rule · OU 2.5 + 1X2 · since 4 May 2026
ROI · all-time record (not a claim)
+8.8%
95% range −0.4% to +18.0%, so it could still be luck. We are not claiming an edge.
Current line-up (6 active strategies): +12.0% on 470 picks · range −0.8% to +24.7%
Settled
857
picks since 4 May
ROI · 30d
−0.0%
273 bets
Worst drop
−€1,064
at €25 a pick
Hit rate
41.5%
break-even 38.3%
Break-even is the hit rate these prices need to make a profit (average of 1 ÷ odds). A 45% hit rate at odds of 2.40 beats 60% at 1.55.
At €25 per pick, the 857 settled picks would have returned +€1,890 (+8.8% ROI).
Past results, not a forecast. 18+ · Bet only what you can afford to lose.
Cumulative P&L · €25 per pick
Window Δ
+€1.9k
Peak
+€1.9k
Max drawdown
−€365
Click any row for its chart and every pick · since 4 May 2026 · €25 per pick
Since 4 May 2026 · flat €25 per pick (your stake) · ROI at the best price available when each pick was made (all books) · logged before kickoff · 111 strategies tested, 83 retired
Active rows count every settled pick (947); the headline counts only picks logged before kick-off (857, 90 fewer). A pick two bots both made counts once in each bot's row.
The square tag is the strategy's status, and the status alone decides where its picks go. Active and testing strategies both send their picks to /picks, and every pick sent is counted in that strategy's own record here. Only active strategies count in the headline totals and post every pick to our Telegram channel; a testing strategy posts only its strongest picks (expected value ≥ 5%) and becomes active after 50 settled picks that beat the sharp closing line on average. VIP is our paid-tier channel on top of a status ("VIP · testing"): its picks appear here once settled, each marked EV8 (expected value ≥ 8%) or EV5 (5–8%). About VIP.
Hit rate is the share of settled picks that won. On its own it flatters short prices, so it always sits over its break-even: the hit rate these prices need to make a profit (the average of 1 ÷ odds over the same picks). 45% won at average odds 2.40 makes money; 60% at 1.55 loses it. Same settled picks and prices as the ROI beside it; voids left out.
The round tag says what sets the fair price: our own probability model, the sharpest single line with its margin removed, or several bookmakers agreeing with the margin removed. The last two use no model and differ only in how many books set the price.
Two badge families, two questions. The round tagafter a strategy's name is where its fair price comes from (model, sharp, consensus). The outlined tag with a bar on its left before the name is what it bets: 1X2 is the match result, O/U the total-goals over/under (with the line when the strategy only bets one, e.g. O/U 2.5; plain O/U means several lines), AH an Asian handicap. A strategy that bets two markets shows both, joined with +.
Closing-line value (CLV) on the sharp and consensus rows is measured vs the sharp close: our price against Pinnacle's final line with the margin removed, or a 5+ bookmaker consensus where Pinnacle has none. Positive means the price beat where the market settled. The figure against the book's own close is shown beside it, but it cannot judge these picks — they are chosen because that book's price is off, and a price the book never corrects closes where it opened.
405 settled · 40.2% won (break-even 36.4%)
Includes picks under earlier rules (r0–r1)
+€1,226
225 settled · 49.8% won (break-even 49.6%)
Includes picks under earlier rules (r0)
−€46
162 settled · 61.7% won (break-even 50.6%)
Includes picks under earlier rules (r3–r4)
+€939
86 settled · 38.4% won (break-even 37.5%)
+€100
37 settled · 48.6% won (break-even 47.6%)
+€26
32 settled · 59.4% won (break-even 50.7%)
Includes picks under earlier rules (r2–r3)
+€119
| Bot | Settled | W / L | Hit ratevs break-even | ROI | P&L (€) | CLV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active — counts in the headline totals | |||||||
Market: 1X2model Includes picks under earlier rules (r0–r1) | 405 | 163/242 | 40.2%needs 36.4% | +12.1% | +1226.06 | CLV positive | |
Market: O/Usharp Includes picks under earlier rules (r0) | 225 | 112/113 | 49.8%needs 49.6% | -0.8% | -46.08 | CLV positive | |
Market: 1X2model Includes picks under earlier rules (r3–r4) | 162 | 100/62 | 61.7%needs 50.6% | +23.2% | +939.00 | CLV positive | |
Market: 1X2sharp | 86 | 33/53 | 38.4%needs 37.5% | +4.6% | +99.75 | CLV positive | |
Market: O/U 2.5sharp | 37 | 18/19 | 48.6%needs 47.6% | +2.8% | +26.15 | CLV negative | |
Market: O/Umodel Includes picks under earlier rules (r2–r3) | 32 | 19/13 | 59.4%needs 50.7% | +14.8% | +118.79 | CLV negative | |
143 settled · 42.7% won (break-even 44.0%)
Includes picks under earlier rules (v1)
−€236
28 settled · 57.1% won (break-even 67.8%)
Includes picks under earlier rules (v1)
−€107
58 settled · 55.2% won (break-even 46.5%)
Includes picks under earlier rules (r1–r2)
+€232
54 settled · 48.1% won (break-even 50.7%)
−€75
2 settled — accumulating
| Bot | Settled | W / L | Hit ratevs break-even | ROI | P&L (€) | CLV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Testing — own record only, not in the headline totals | |||||||
Market: 1X2 + O/U 2.5consensus Includes picks under earlier rules (v1) | 143 | 61/82 | 42.7%needs 44.0% | -6.6% | -235.76 | CLV negative | |
Market: 1X2 + O/U 2.5consensus Includes picks under earlier rules (v1) | 28 | 16/12 | 57.1%needs 67.8% | -15.2% | -106.60 | CLV negative | |
| VIP — paid tier, shown once settled | |||||||
Market: 1X2model Includes picks under earlier rules (r1–r2) | 58 | 32/26 | 55.2%needs 46.5% | +16.0% | +232.00 | CLV positive | |
Market: O/Usharp | 54 | 26/28 | 48.1%needs 50.7% | -5.6% | -75.25 | CLV positive | |
| In development — fewer than 5 settled | |||||||
Market: AHsharp | 2 | — | — | — | — | ||
How these numbers are computed
What we claim and don't, the range and risk at your stake, streaks, calibration.
Every one recorded before the match and settled against official scores.
We are not claiming an edge. Measured against the closing market on the same bets, our model’s picks are not statistically distinguishable from the price they were taken at. The ledger is published in full so you can check that yourself — including the periods where it lost. The totals also count the sharp-edge rule that makes most picks published today; it has been tracked from zero since 14 Sep and makes no claim either.
857 bets logged·11 strategies live·83 retired·153 days running
At €25 per pick, the 857 settled picks since 4 May would have returned +€1,890 (+8.8% ROI).
Could this be luck? Not ruled out yet. With 857 picks, a realistic range is −€79 to +€3,859. The more picks we settle, the clearer it gets.
Worst drawdown at €25: −€1,064 · longest losing run: 21 picks · you’d have needed about €2,200 set aside.
Flat stake, no compounding. Settled picks only, priced at the best price available on a publishable book when the pick was logged. ROI and pick counts don’t change with the stake. Past results, not a forecast. 18+ · Bet only what you can afford to lose.
The work behind it
19,533 picks tested across 111 strategies that made at least one pick, since May 2026 (15,470 distinct selections, 18,704 settled). 83 of them were retired, 17 are still in internal testing, and 11 are on this page.
The ROI at the top is today's proven strategies only. Retired picks count here and in the retired section — never in that number, whether they won or lost.
Streaks
variance is real — even a +5% ROI edge sees double-digit losing runsOver the headline picks, oldest to newest — each pick counted once, the same picks as the recent results list.
Current
1W in a row
Longest winning
8W
Longest losing
20L
The full method, step by step, is on the methodology page.
Retired strategies (83)
15,873 picks, grouped by family, losers included.
What the trigger bots taught us: the same soft-book prices beat the sharp closing line by +7.4% (n 271) when they were chosen against the sharp line, and -5.9% (n 2,052) when they were chosen against our model. What decides the bet is the yardstick, not the bookmaker.
In-play
20 strategies · 3,089 picks · 1,786W–1,058L
ROI -1.8%
2,844
CLV n/a (in-play)
Flagged picks: 1,237 before mid-July (weaker closes)
New markets (corners, team totals, first half)
3 strategies · 3,073 picks · 1,328W–1,700L
ROI +2.5%
3,028
CLV +0.8% (n 2,959)
Model — match result (1X2, double chance, handicap)
28 strategies · 3,006 picks · 1,041W–1,860L
ROI -5.1%
2,901
CLV -2.9% (n 998)
Flagged picks: 1,954 in the 1X2 swap window · 1,983 before mid-July (weaker closes)
Soft-book triggers vs OUR MODEL
6 strategies · 2,301 picks · 654W–1,623L
ROI -7.0%
2,277
CLV -5.9% (n 2,052)
Flagged picks: 1,262 in the 1X2 swap window · 939 in the O/U calibration-bug window
Sharp line-shopping (a book beats the sharp line)
6 strategies · 2,271 picks · 966W–1,272L
ROI -1.3%
2,238
CLV +2.8% (n 2,104)
Model — goals (over/under, both teams to score)
14 strategies · 1,266 picks · 549W–678L
ROI -4.0%
1,227
CLV -4.7% (n 774)
Flagged picks: 328 in the O/U calibration-bug window · 520 before mid-July (weaker closes)
Accumulator legs
1 strategy · 533 picks · 284W–249L
ROI -10.5%
533
CLV -3.9% (n 220)
Flagged picks: 316 before mid-July (weaker closes)
Soft-book triggers vs the SHARP line
3 strategies · 171 picks · 68W–96L
ROI -15.0%
164
CLV +6.8% (n 162)
Pre-registered forward test
2 strategies · 163 picks · 72W–84L
ROI +1.5%
156
CLV -1.6% (n 148)
Same basis as every row above: flat 1 unit per pick at the best price available when the pick was made (all books); in-play picks at their own in-play price. CLV = the pick's price against the sharp closing line (in-play picks have none). Flags: the 1X2 swap window is 10 May–14 Sep, when our served match-result model partly mixed up home and away; the O/U calibration bug ran 3–13 Sep; closing lines before mid-July are weaker evidence. Flagged picks are counted, not removed. Named strategies are the largest per family with a good closing-line record, never picked by result.
We run the same test on tipster sites: The Price Check